NMIMS – Decision Science
Decision Science
1. Calculate the probability for the following statements. Draw the Probability tree diagram also.
In a medical college in Pune (a class of 100 people), 30 % of people Like to have Misal-pav at the farewell party as per the Google form survey. The remaining people have chosen Vada Pav. Out of those who have chosen Misal-pav 50 % said that they would eat only Jain Misal pav. Well, 30 % of those who have chosen Vadapav, also said they would have Jain Vadapav only.
What is the stack (percent & number) of people who will have Jain Food (including MISal pav and Vadapav)
What is the probability of selecting a person who would eat Misal pav given that person’s diet type is Jain? (10 Marks)
Note: Handmade drawing of Diagrams is prohibited; prepare it with the help of software like MS Word.
2. Write the interpretation for the following regression model. You are advised to run the analysis using MS EXCEL.
Here is Hiranmayee Dhar, an entrepreneur who is running “Pashminaa” a store of Pashmina shawls. She is targeting customers via social media applications; she has chosen Instagram as a platform and has also chosen REELs to advertise her products. She is looking for a forecasting model to understand the impact of no of likes of the REELs demonstrating the product and its sales (in number of units). (10 Marks)
Reel Number
Reel 1
Reel 2
Reel 3
Reel 4
Reel 5
Reel 6
Reel 7
Reel 8
Reel 9
Reel 10
Reel 11
Reel 12
Reel 13
Reel 14
Reel 15
Reel 16
Reel 17
Reel 18
Reel 19
Reel 20
Reel 21
Reel 22
Reel 23
Reel 24
Reel 25
Reel 26
Reel 27
Reel 28
Reel 29
Reel 30
Reel 31
Number of units sold
24
24
24
24
26
28
28
29
30
31
32
32
35
35
36
36
38
38
39
40
41
41
41
42
46
46
46
48
48
48
49
Number of likes
1503
1564
1649
1882
1924
1937
1944
2086
2150
2215
2366
2472
2622
2792
2871
2973
3000
3024
3319
3336
3337
3413
3479
3577
3617
3922
4332
4562
4577
4763
4964
Write the regression model.
Discuss the R-square, Multiple R
Discuss the ANOVA
Discuss the Significance of the Independent variable and B1 value.
3.a) Draw an appropriate chart for the following. Also, write your clarification for choosing that graph. For each variable identify a time-series component present if you consider the long-term pattern. (5 Marks)
Table: Production of Commercial crops. (Source: RBI)
Year
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
Groundnut (Lakh Tonnes)
64
70
41
81
68
80
49
92
72
54
83
70
47
97
74
67
75
93
67
100
102
101
Rapeseed & Mustard (Lakh Tonnes)
42
51
39
63
76
81
74
58
72
66
82
66
80
79
63
68
79
84
93
91
102
118
Soybean (Lakh Tonnes)
53
60
47
78
69
83
89
110
99
100
127
122
147
119
104
86
132
109
133
112
126
130
Note: Here you are advised to use Software like EXCEL for making Graphs, copy them, and paste into your assignment file. Snapshots are not allowed.
3.b) Write the sampling plan for the following study. Also write, what is recommended according to you, census survey or sample Survey?
Imagine yourself doing PhD in NMIMS, for one of your research papers you require a primary survey to understand the social media consumption of LinkedIn users. Your goal is to understand why they are using LinkedIn, how many hours a day, and the activities they do on the same platform. You do have a research questionnaire in your hand as per your proper literature study. Now, the question is about survey and data collection. (5 Marks)
